Refer to the below illustrative examples on the different scenario analysis of Currency Pair Principal Protected Investment.
This scenario analysis for Currency Pair Principal Protected Investment is based on the following terms (CNY Bullish view and expects a depreciation to 6.0362 with USD against CNY within 6 months) |
Investment Currency |
CNY |
Principal Amount |
CNY 100,000.00 |
Investment Tenor |
6 Months (180 days) |
Currency Pair |
USD/CNH |
Initial Fixing Rate |
6.0972 |
Strike Rate |
6.0362 (99% of Initial Fixing Rate) |
Fixing Rate |
The exchange rate of the Currency Pair on the Exchange Rate Fixing Date |
Interest Rate
(1) Target Return Rate
OR
(2) Minimum / Lower Return Rate(it may be zero)
|
If the Fixing Rate on the Exchange Rate Fixing Date is:
(1) at or below of the Strike Rate, 5.60% p.a. will be applied;
OR otherwise
(2) 1.00% p.a. will be applied |
Scenario 1 (Best Case Scenario) – Targe Return Rate
Assuming on Fixing Date, the Fixing Rate is AT or BELOW the Strike Rate 6.0362
The amount received at maturity
CNY 102,800.00
= Principal Amount + Interest Amount calculated at the Target Return Rate
= CNY 100,000.00 + CNY (100,000.00 x 5.60% x (180/360))
= CNY 100,000.00 + CNY 2,800.00
In this scenario, you have an actual gain of an Interest Amount of CNY 2,800.00, representing an actual rate of return of 2.80% (i.e. Interest Amount (CNY 2,800.00) ÷ Principal Amount (CNY 100,000.00) x 100%) (rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places). This is the maximum potential gain under Currency Pair Principal Protected Investment even if your view on the Fixing Rate is correct.
Scenario 2 (Lower Return Scenario) – Minimum / Lower Return Rate
Assuming on Fixing Date, the Fixing Rate is ABOVE the Strike Rate 6.0362
The amount received at maturity
CNY 100,500.00
= Principal Amount + Interest Amount calculated at the minimum / lower Interest Rate
= CNY 100,000.00 + CNY (100,000.00 x 1.00% x (180/360))
= CNY 100,000.00 + CNY 500.00
In this scenario, you have an actual gain of an Interest Amount of CNY 500.00, representing an actual rate of return of 0.50% (i.e. Interest Amount (CNY 500.00) ÷ Principal Amount (CNY 100,000.00) x 100%) (rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places)
Scenario 3 (Default Scenario) – The Bank defaults in payment or becomes insolvent
Assuming that the Bank becomes insolvent or defaults on its obligations under this product, you can only claim as an unsecured creditor of OCBC Bank (Macau) Limited regardless of the terms of this product. You may get nothing back and may lose all of your Principal Amount of CNY 100,000.00 and the potential Interest Amount even if your view on the movement of exchanges is correct.
Scenario Summary and Potential Return Analysis
Scenario |
Fixing Rate
(USD / CNH) |
Total payout on the maturity date (CNY) |
Investment return at maturity (CNY) |
Gain or loss against the Principal Amount (Actual %) |
1 |
6.0300 |
102,800.00 |
2,800.00 |
2.80% |
2 |
6.0400 |
100,500.00 |
500.00 |
0.50% |
3 |
You will be ranked as an unsecured creditor against the Bank if the Bank becomes insolvent or defaults on its obligations under this product and you may lose the entire Principal Amount of CNY 100,000.00 and the potential Interest Amount. |
Other Scenario 4 – if your home currency is not CNY
This scenario is based on the assumption that you convert USD16,393.44 (Principal Amount in Home Currency) to CNY100,000 at the Exchange Rate of 6.1000 (USD/CNH) and invest the Principal Amount CNY100,000 in this product.
Gain Scenario
Assuming that the Fixing Rate is AT or BELOW the Strike Rate on the Fixing Date, as elaborated under scenario 1 above, you will receive in cash the Principal Amount together with the Interest Amount (i.e. CNY100,000.00 + CNY2,800.00 = CNY102,800.00) payable in CNY on the Maturity Date. If you convert the CNY payments you receive back to USD, the amount you receive will be affected by the prevailing exchange rate between USD and CNY and you will make a gain only if the prevailing exchange rate is below 6.2708 (USD/CNH).
Assuming that the prevailing exchange rate between USD and CNY is 6.0390 (USD/CNH), you will receive USD17,022.69 (CNY102,800.00 / 6.0390). In this example, you will have an actual gain of USD629.25 (USD17,022.69 - USD16,393.44) or 3.84% (USD629.25 / USD16,393.44).
Break Even Scenario
Assuming that the Fixing Rate is ABOVE Strike Rate as elaborated in scenario 2 above, you will receive in cash the Principal Amount together with the Interest Amount (i.e. CNY100,000.00 + CNY500.00 = CNY100,500.00) payable in CNY on the Maturity Date. If you convert the CNY payments you receive back to USD, the amount you receive will be affected by the prevailing exchange rate between USD and CNY.
Assuming that the prevailing exchange rate between USD and CNY is 6.1305 (USD/CNH), you will receive USD16,393.44 (CNY100,500.00 / 6.1305) which is equal to your initial investment amount in your home currency.
Losing Scenario
Assuming that the Fixing Rate is ABOVE Strike Rate as elaborated in scenario 2 above, you will receive in cash the Principal Amount together with the Interest Amount (i.e. CNY100,000.00 + CNY500.00 = CNY100,500.00) payable in CNY on the Maturity Date. If you convert the CNY payments you receive back to USD, the amount you receive will be affected by the prevailing exchange rate between USD and CNY and you will suffer a loss once the prevailing exchange rate is above 6.1305 (USD/CNH).
Assuming that the prevailing exchange rate between USD and CNY is 6.1613 (USD/CNH), you will receive USD16,311.49 (CNY100,500.00 / 6.1613). In this example, you will have an actual loss of USD81.95 (USD16,311.49 – USD16,393.44) or 0.50% (USD81.95 / USD16,393.44).
In the worst case whereby CNY depreciates to zero, you may lose all of your investment.